What if Germany won World War I?

Consequences for European geography, economics, moon landing and nuclear weapons

The defeat of Germany in WWI had profound consequences for Europe. It set in motion a series of events that led to the rise of the Nazis and later World War II. It might be then interesting to look at what Europe would look like if Germany had actually won first world war instead of the allies.

Economic Development

Both WWI and WWII destroyed European economies. To get some sense we need to look at some statistics. The US has a huge lead over France and Germany in 1911.

But here is something puzzling. If we look at the number for 1939, the US advantage over Germany has been reduced from 50% to around 23%. Consider a very destructive war has happened in between. How can this be explained?

There are several reasons for this. The United States has more resources, especially agricultural land. In a non-industrial economy the US simply outcompeted other countries as there was far more land per farmer and climate allowing for valuable cash crops such as cotton and tobacco. But when industrialization began it had early advantage of much easier to access coal. The coal was also in larger quantities and a type more suitable for industrial processes.

The US also had better conditions for canal building which was crucial for bulk transportation before railroads. France was held back by not having any coal and Germany was held back by having the wrong type of coal. Their coal required more advanced technology before it could be utilized properly.

These factors delayed French and German industrialization and economic development. However once Germany was unified and railroads invented it became possible to connect mines, markets and industrial centers. In other words it seems plausible that without the heavy war reparations and Weimar hyper inflation it could have caught up with the US. Instead Germany got dealt a double blow. You will see how the destruction of WWII made all of Europe lag behind the US. Especially Germany which had been close to catching up.

Another factor is the population size differences. Germany due to its losses in WWI and WWII lost a lot of territory and population. These are estimates for 1950:

• Germany (no WWI and WWII losses) – 102 to 110 million

• United States – 152 million

• USSR (No WW2 losses) – 222 million

Actual Germany in 1950 had 68 million people but it was split in two so it had 50 million in the West and 18.4 million in the East. In other words the total economic strength of Germany was profoundly reduced due to the war.

Scientific and Technological Development

The exodus of German scientists, particularly Jewish scholars, during the Nazi era led to a significant “brain drain” that profoundly impacted both Germany and the United States. Many of these émigrés were pioneers in fields such as nuclear physics, quantum mechanics, and computer science.

Impact on the United States

Manhattan Project: Several refugee scientists played pivotal roles in the development of the atomic bomb. Notable figures include:

• Albert Einstein: Although not directly involved in the project’s research, Einstein’s letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt, co-signed with physicist Leo Szilard, was instrumental in initiating the project.

• Hans Bethe: Led the theoretical division at Los Alamos, making significant contributions to the bomb’s design.

• Edward Teller: Known as the “father of the hydrogen bomb,” Teller was a key member of the Los Alamos team.

• Leo Szilard: Co-developed the idea of the nuclear chain reaction and was a major advocate for the bomb’s development.

• John von Neumann: Made significant contributions to the development of the explosive lenses used in the implosion-type nuclear weapon.

Computer Science and Mathematics: Refugee scientists also made foundational contributions in these fields:

• John von Neumann: Developed the architecture underlying most modern computers and contributed to game theory and quantum mechanics.

• Stanislaw Ulam: Played a crucial role in the development of the Monte Carlo method and worked on thermonuclear reactions.

Innovation Boost: A study analyzing the impact of German Jewish émigrés on U.S. innovation found that their arrival led to a 31% increase in patenting activity in their respective research fields after 1933.

Impact on Germany:

The departure of these scientists resulted in a substantial loss of intellectual capital for Germany. Fields such as physics, chemistry, and mathematics experienced setbacks due to the absence of these leading figures.

Had these scientists remained in Germany, it’s plausible that:

• Nuclear Research: Germany could have advanced more rapidly in nuclear physics, potentially developing nuclear reactors or even weapons before other nations.

• Space Exploration: With talents like Wernher von Braun (who, after the war, was brought to the U.S. under Operation Paperclip and became a key figure in NASA’s Apollo program), Germany might have led early space exploration efforts.

• Computing: Innovations in computer science could have emerged from Germany, given the foundational work of scientists like von Neumann.

In summary, the forced migration of German scientists during the Nazi era not only deprived Germany of significant intellectual resources but also provided the United States with a substantial boost in scientific and technological advancements.

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Germany before WWII was a scientific powerhouse. Without economic problems induced by WWI and WWII as well as the brain drain to the US the postwar period would have looked very different. For instance key technologies that the US came to dominate such as computing, space exploration, nuclear power and nuclear weapons was actually areas that Germany had the strongest potential lead in. The first programmable computer the Z1 by Konrad Zuse was made in Germany. But his work got severely hampered by the war.

Let us look at some different areas in more detail

Germany’s Nuclear Research Before and During WW2

Germany was already at the forefront of nuclear physics before the war:

Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann (1938): Discovered nuclear fission, the key process behind nuclear power and atomic bombs. This discovery laid the foundation for nuclear weapons research worldwide.

Werner Heisenberg and the German Uranium Club: Heisenberg, one of the greatest physicists of his time, led Germany’s nuclear research program. However, the project never reached the level of the Manhattan Project due to:

• Lack of prioritization by Hitler.

• Miscalculations about the feasibility of a bomb.

• Loss of key Jewish scientists who fled Nazi persecution.

Without the war could Germany Have Built Nuclear Reactors First? Yes, most likely. Germany already had the scientific knowledge and industrial capability. If it had focused on peaceful nuclear power, Germany could have led in nuclear reactors, possibly developing them in the 1940s or early 1950s. The U.S. only built the first nuclear reactor in 1942 (Chicago Pile-1, led by Enrico Fermi). A strong Germany could have achieved this earlier.

It also means Germany could have developed nuclear weapons before the US or at similar time.

Could Germany Have Beaten the U.S. to the Moon?

A unified Germany with its old borders would have been a massive economy, second only to the United States. It would have had the economic ability to pursue a moon program. There are several reasons why Germany likely would have won a Moon race.

The lead rocket designer in the US was Wernher von Braun from German. While working in Nazi Germany, von Braun had already conceived of large multistage rockets for space travel. The Saturn V design had its origins in German research; von Braun later developed it in the U.S., but its core principles came from his work at Peenemünde, where he and his team developed the V-2 rocket (the world’s first long-range guided ballistic missile).

Before the war ended, Germany was developing a two-stage rocket known as the A9/A10 as part of the Amerika Bomber project (building a rocket that could be launched from Germany and reach targets in the US). The A10 was designed to cross the Atlantic, demonstrating that Germany already had the theoretical framework for large, intercontinental rockets.

In other words Germany was far ahead of everyone in rocketry. They had the top rocketry lab and the leading rocket scientist, Wernher von Braun. German economic strength would have been far ahead of the USSR, which we know managed to beat the US in launching the first satellite and man into space.

Consequences for Europe as a Whole

I have focused on Germany in this article because that is where we would have seen the biggest difference. But WW2 not happening would have had far reaching consequences elsewhere. Eastern Europe would not have been under Soviet dominance. More likely it would have been under stronger German influence. Economically speaking that would have been a profound advantage. Communist rule in the East block severely hindered their development. Instead Eastern European countries would have developed economies of similar strength to that of Western Europe.

A stronger and richer Germany would also have served as a massive economic engine for the rest of Europe. Germany would have provided markets for European goods and been a supplier of countless products to the rest of Europe.

The US and the USSR would be weaker in relative terms to today. The US would not have gotten the massive brain drain from Europe to power its science and technology development. The US avoiding destruction in WWII was able dominate the world stage and center a new world order around itself.

Without WW2, Europe would have been too strong for this to happen. The combination of Eastern Europe and Germany being considerably richer and technologically advanced would have tilted the balance of power. The USSR without satellite states in Eastern Europe would have lacked trading partners and allies to be able to build itself up as a superpower. Or it could be argued it would be better off given that it would not have endured the massive destruction of WW2.

Conclusion

My first version of this article was about why Germany should have won WWI but that brought up so many complex moral and ethical issues I had to spend time on writing. In reality I was more interested in what would have happened if Germany won, rather than getting into whether they should have won.

As you can see in this article there are reasons why the world might actually have been better off with Germany winning the first world war. But I like to tackle that question in a separate article.