Europe Must "Ally" With China

We can’t afford a two-front cold war with both Beijing and Washington

This was supposed to be a European knight and Chinese Kung Fu master embracing each other, but AI doesn’t always play along.

Update: I put “ally” in quotation marks because what I speak of here is not an alliance in the same sense as Europe has with the US today. Perhaps better seen as simply putting confrontation with China on ice until the Trump situation is resolved.

Yes, China is an authoritarian state. And yes, I believe in democracy—fiercely. But Europe’s survival doesn’t hinge on ideological purity. It hinges on strategic realism.

For years, we’ve worked to untangle our economies from China’s grip. That effort made sense—until now. With global tensions escalating, Europe finds itself caught between a revisionist Russia, an erratic United States, and a rising China. We can’t afford to make enemies of all three.

History offers a brutal lesson: even Churchill needed Stalin. Today, like it or not, China may have to play the role of uneasy partner. Not because we admire the regime—but because cold pragmatism demands it.

As U.S.-China trade hostilities escalate, both Beijing and Brussels are watching American markets close like iron gates. The solution? Reroute. Goods meant for the U.S. can flow between China and Europe instead. We need to buy and sell somewhere—and each other may be the best option left.

Now, let’s be clear: China is a surveillance state with a dismal human rights record. But when assessing global risk, a few uncomfortable truths emerge:

1. China’s aggression is mostly inward-facing. It doesn’t regularly bomb or invade sovereign nations like the US. US military interventions since 1890.

2. Its foreign policy is steady—unlike Washington’s whiplash-inducing swings from administration to administration.

3. The Chinese government, for all its flaws, prizes competence. It is run by technocrats. Compare that to the revolving door of chaos currently gripping American leadership.

This isn’t a love letter to Beijing. It’s a call for Europe to act like an adult in a room full of egos and erratic empires.

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Let’s talk about the elephant—and the island—in the room: Taiwan.

Yes, it’s the flashpoint everyone fears. But despite the hawkish headlines, Beijing is not Washington. China, for all its authoritarian rigidity, doesn’t operate on impulse. It doesn’t tweet out foreign policy at 3 A.M. or threaten nuclear war over ego. Its moves are calculated, strategic, and—crucially—open to negotiation. Diplomacy may not fix everything, but it can buy time. And time is all we need.

An invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic, no question. But it wouldn’t be Europe’s catastrophe—at least not immediately. China is half a world away. Russia, by contrast, is lobbing missiles at our neighbor. Our top priority must remain where the danger is immediate: in Ukraine, not the Taiwan Strait.

Meanwhile, the U.S.—our supposed ally—has taken a turn toward unpredictability. Under Trump, Washington floated the idea of invading Greenland, which, last we checked, is still part of the Kingdom of Denmark. China has never made threats like that. In fact, it hasn’t made territorial threats against any European country. From a realpolitik standpoint, China is not the menace. It’s the partner we don’t want, but may need.

As for those who say we should worry about China invading Australia or New Zealand—consider the logistics. We’re talking absurdly long supply lines across the Pacific, vulnerable to every form of modern warfare. Beijing has no naval empire. It has no Monroe Doctrine. It’s not the 19th-century West in a Maoist mask.

If anything, China’s history is one of fending off invaders, not launching conquests. It is not a power that expands by storming beaches—it builds influence through ports, pipelines, and purchase orders.

There’s another reason to keep the lines to Beijing open: we need them.

Right now, Chinese components are helping Ukraine build drones. In other words, even as we back Kyiv against Moscow, our supply chains run through Shenzhen. Like it or not, China is a critical node in Europe’s evolving drone based defense ecosystem. Cutting ties now—when war rages on our doorstep—would be self-sabotage.

But this isn’t just about surviving the present. It’s also about shaping the future.

China sees an opening in Europe. As U.S. credibility crumbles, Beijing smells opportunity—not just in trade, but in diplomacy. And here lies the leverage: if China wants to be embraced by Europeans, it needs to give us something to believe in.

Democracy doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. Start small. Let citizens elect their mayors. Introduce local accountability. Open up press freedoms—even modest ones. Reform the courts with panels of professional and lay judges to build trust in justice.

These aren’t just Western fantasies. They’re low-cost, high-impact reforms that signal good faith. If China wants to replace America as our global partner, it will need more than cheap goods. It will need legitimacy. And Europe, more than any other region, can offer that legitimacy—if there’s something to respect in return.