I hope this can change in the future. I am not sure how. I was thinking of writing a piece on how I frankly think the US needs to split. The left and right division in the US has become too entrenched and toxic. I just don't think there is a way to resolve it peacefully other than liberal states leaving the union.
Europe does of course have many other democratic allies which we can forge stronger relationships with such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea etc. And it has been my argument before that as a rule on should NOT trust superpowers: https://erikexamines.substack.com/p/never-trust-a-superpower
When buying weapons for instance or any other strategically important product one should always prefer buying from a smaller nation, since smaller nations lack the ability to blackmail you the way a behemoth like China or the US can.
So when I talk about being an "ally" with China it is hyperbole. Other democratic nations should come first. But when that is not an option we should not rule out China. That is my point. Perhaps we should work hard to get detach from China in the future, but right now is not the right moment for that.
That is a bit like driving real hard for a green shift while Russia just pulled all gas deliveries. There is a time and place for everything.
Agree in part. Need to balance between the dictatorships in China and US, not pick sides. Strengthening your point on Taiwan, a seaborne invasion isn't actually possible, and massive missile attacks wouldn't achieve anything except destruction. UK in particular needs to abandon "pivot to Asia". Australia needs to dump AUKUS and join Europe.
Absolutely. We must be careful to not create complete dependency on China. I think the pragmatic approach is some kind of balance of power approach where we put ourselves in a situation where China and the US can be played out against each other. Make sure we arrange markets, military etc in such a away that we are not fully reliant on either nation, but can swap from one to the other if either tries to screw us over.
Ideally Europe relies primarily on other democratic nations such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, Mexico, Canada etc. But the US and China are both such huge economies that it is not practical to isolate oneself from both.
We must have an approach smarter than Trump which just does tariffs on everything. Trade with China and the US freely when products and industries of strategic importance are not on the line.
I don't see a reason to be strategic about washing machines, sneakers and baseball bats for instance.
But fighter jets, artillery, medical supplies, steel, microchips. Stuff like that is of very strategic importance and that requires policies that secure supplies and/or retain important capacity domestically in Europe.
I also think media platforms are of very high strategic importance and that Europe really should look into either buying some important media platforms or building their own, to make sure an adversary does not get control over crucial media platforms and use them to manipulate elections.
This makes good arguments. I’m also no fan of China’s human rights record but as you note, China is at least competently run. You can’t say the same for Russia.
Or, sadly, my country, the U.S., which has lost its way.
Sigh yeah, it is a really shitty situation to be in. We should be living in a world with expanding democracy. Instead China has slid back into more authoritarianism with Xi, and Putin's Russia was generally far more free than China, but it has gotten really dystopian now. And the icing on the cake is of course the US under Trump.
It reminds me far too much of the 1930s. It was a time when a spread of liberalism and democracy regressed and fascist dictatorships popped up everywhere in the world from South America, to Europe to Asia.
Of course the overall world is a lot more democratic and civilized today. Thank God. But US democracy being under threat is very scary. The US is just so powerful that it can have serious consequences for the whole world.
No, no, no, no. Gaining strength to stand on one's own two feet specifically means not leaning on someone else.
So, the US is gone for now. But even the US under Hippo Don pales in comparison to China under Xi. Fuck m both.
You seem to forget, Erik, that China is an old culture, still reeling from the Opium Wars one and a half centuries ago. Why, do you think, are they not stopping the export of base ingredients for fentanyl to Mexico, which Xi could do in a heartbeat, because China is, after all, a brutal dictatorship?
Payback time.
They also haven't forgotten the Japanese occupation of Manchuria. In short, the Chinese don't forget, and they're waiting to reel us in, kick us around and return the favor by humiliating us.
Jeez, can we please try and stand on our own two feet before we start searching for another power to help us out?
Also, the economic arguments do not fly. One dimension, not told to the European public, but most definitely taken into account by European leaders - the funds now liberated for military investment, themselves inducing economic growth, have also opened the door to Eurobonds and deficit spending. If there are hard economic times ahead, which there are, Europe can finally spend itself out of a recession.
We don't need China, nor the US to maintain our wealth and prosperity...
Bullshit. You fallen into anti-American Chomskyite brain loop.
1. Agrression. China historically invade SOUTH. And chinese is very aggressive. Nanman. Dali. Yelang. Nanyue. All subsumed under China. And now China is very aggressive toward South China Sea.
2. Steady. China switch policy quite frequently. Remember wolf diplomacy ?? Besidee, with no democracy, swing when leader change is swift and explosive.
3. Competence. Many Xi policy in last 5 years is nostalgic and ideological. It destroy chinese net-service economy into hardware manufacturing that party leader understand.
4. Taiwan. If Europe didnt care about 20 million democratic nation getting invaded then all its idealism is false. Russia would not invade Western Europe too. Why should UK or France help Ukraine ??
This entire article is farce. You try to fight Trump, by becoming Trump. Self-interested cynical dog-eat-dog who dont believe in anything.
Oh God, here we go again. Stop caring about whatever Chomsky thinks. I hardly ever heard what the guy has to same about anything. I am not American. Chomsky never was a big guy over here.
Does it occur to you have us outside the US form our opinions based on entirely different histories and experiences from you Americans?
Yes of course China has had wars. We are talking about the big picture here. China in terms of expansionism is nothing compared to Russia and the US. Or even my own continent Europe. Look none of this implies liking China or what they stand for. It is a pragmatic observation of what we can realistically expect from China the next decade. We are in real tough spot right now and have to play real politics.
I don't know what kind of cloud 9 you are on, but in the real world we cannot always push every possible idealism. Also let us not be too cynical. China could change for the better. As countries develop they tend to become more democratic. Yes, I know they have slid back under Xi and become more authoritarian. That sucks, but sometimes development takes some steps back before moving forward.
As for competence. Yes, I am absolutely aware that Xi has done many stupid choices, but we are talking in relative terms here. What Xi is doing is just nothing compared to the insanity and bad decision making from Trump. And Xi for all his flaws is not erratic like Trump. There is predictability which is very important in international politics.
Of course Europe cares about Taiwan, and would send them aid. But here it is about being a pragmatist. We cannot solve every problem. That is on the US to solve. They have most actively guaranteed Taiwan freedom. They got military bases close by. If the US is going to cause us tons of problems, then F them. They can handle Taiwan themselves. If they backstab us on Ukraine, we need to focus extra resources on Ukraine. If the US is not going to help in Ukraine, then at minimum they should direct those resources towards protecting Taiwan.
Europe does not have the economic and military power of the US. You cannot expect us to keep Taiwan afloat, when we have massive problems in our own backyard with Russia.
Why should France and UK help Ukraine? It is a fellow European country. Taiwan is on the other side of the globe. Everyone is Europe are affected by Russia. Lots of European countries have borders with them. None of our alliances are worth shit if we did care about the countries on the borders to Russia.
This is not about not caring about Taiwan, but you cannot expect Europe to fix all problems in the world. Are we going to magically fix the US, Russia, China and everything all at the same time. We are not supermen. We have limit. Now others have to step up their game and help out.
Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are closer. SO is the US. There are many democracies which are much closer than Europe which could aid Taiwain more actively than Europe could.
This isn't about becoming Trump but surviving. Europe does not have the resources to fight a multi-front cold war with Russia, US and China. This is like in triage in a war. You cannot save everyone so you need to prioritize. If Europe collapses then the free world is no well off. I think it is vital that Europe in these troubled times remain as a working economic and military engine.
First priority now is to defeat Russia and bring peace to Ukraine. Other concerns are secondary.
I wish I did not agree with this. As an American is saddens me how we have put Europe in this position. But the truth is obvious.
You cannot trust America to do the right thing.
I hope this can change in the future. I am not sure how. I was thinking of writing a piece on how I frankly think the US needs to split. The left and right division in the US has become too entrenched and toxic. I just don't think there is a way to resolve it peacefully other than liberal states leaving the union.
We had one Civil War.
A piece advocating the opposite:
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/bad-partners
We are not so much at odds as it may seem. Many of the points he touches on I have done before in article like this:
https://erikexamines.substack.com/p/this-is-europes-moment
Europe does of course have many other democratic allies which we can forge stronger relationships with such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea etc. And it has been my argument before that as a rule on should NOT trust superpowers: https://erikexamines.substack.com/p/never-trust-a-superpower
When buying weapons for instance or any other strategically important product one should always prefer buying from a smaller nation, since smaller nations lack the ability to blackmail you the way a behemoth like China or the US can.
So when I talk about being an "ally" with China it is hyperbole. Other democratic nations should come first. But when that is not an option we should not rule out China. That is my point. Perhaps we should work hard to get detach from China in the future, but right now is not the right moment for that.
That is a bit like driving real hard for a green shift while Russia just pulled all gas deliveries. There is a time and place for everything.
Agree in part. Need to balance between the dictatorships in China and US, not pick sides. Strengthening your point on Taiwan, a seaborne invasion isn't actually possible, and massive missile attacks wouldn't achieve anything except destruction. UK in particular needs to abandon "pivot to Asia". Australia needs to dump AUKUS and join Europe.
Absolutely. We must be careful to not create complete dependency on China. I think the pragmatic approach is some kind of balance of power approach where we put ourselves in a situation where China and the US can be played out against each other. Make sure we arrange markets, military etc in such a away that we are not fully reliant on either nation, but can swap from one to the other if either tries to screw us over.
Ideally Europe relies primarily on other democratic nations such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, Mexico, Canada etc. But the US and China are both such huge economies that it is not practical to isolate oneself from both.
We must have an approach smarter than Trump which just does tariffs on everything. Trade with China and the US freely when products and industries of strategic importance are not on the line.
I don't see a reason to be strategic about washing machines, sneakers and baseball bats for instance.
But fighter jets, artillery, medical supplies, steel, microchips. Stuff like that is of very strategic importance and that requires policies that secure supplies and/or retain important capacity domestically in Europe.
I also think media platforms are of very high strategic importance and that Europe really should look into either buying some important media platforms or building their own, to make sure an adversary does not get control over crucial media platforms and use them to manipulate elections.
Yes, I covered some of this here, and in related posts https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/dispensing-with-the-us
This makes good arguments. I’m also no fan of China’s human rights record but as you note, China is at least competently run. You can’t say the same for Russia.
Or, sadly, my country, the U.S., which has lost its way.
Sigh yeah, it is a really shitty situation to be in. We should be living in a world with expanding democracy. Instead China has slid back into more authoritarianism with Xi, and Putin's Russia was generally far more free than China, but it has gotten really dystopian now. And the icing on the cake is of course the US under Trump.
It reminds me far too much of the 1930s. It was a time when a spread of liberalism and democracy regressed and fascist dictatorships popped up everywhere in the world from South America, to Europe to Asia.
Of course the overall world is a lot more democratic and civilized today. Thank God. But US democracy being under threat is very scary. The US is just so powerful that it can have serious consequences for the whole world.
No, no, no, no. Gaining strength to stand on one's own two feet specifically means not leaning on someone else.
So, the US is gone for now. But even the US under Hippo Don pales in comparison to China under Xi. Fuck m both.
You seem to forget, Erik, that China is an old culture, still reeling from the Opium Wars one and a half centuries ago. Why, do you think, are they not stopping the export of base ingredients for fentanyl to Mexico, which Xi could do in a heartbeat, because China is, after all, a brutal dictatorship?
Payback time.
They also haven't forgotten the Japanese occupation of Manchuria. In short, the Chinese don't forget, and they're waiting to reel us in, kick us around and return the favor by humiliating us.
Jeez, can we please try and stand on our own two feet before we start searching for another power to help us out?
Also, the economic arguments do not fly. One dimension, not told to the European public, but most definitely taken into account by European leaders - the funds now liberated for military investment, themselves inducing economic growth, have also opened the door to Eurobonds and deficit spending. If there are hard economic times ahead, which there are, Europe can finally spend itself out of a recession.
We don't need China, nor the US to maintain our wealth and prosperity...
Bullshit. You fallen into anti-American Chomskyite brain loop.
1. Agrression. China historically invade SOUTH. And chinese is very aggressive. Nanman. Dali. Yelang. Nanyue. All subsumed under China. And now China is very aggressive toward South China Sea.
2. Steady. China switch policy quite frequently. Remember wolf diplomacy ?? Besidee, with no democracy, swing when leader change is swift and explosive.
3. Competence. Many Xi policy in last 5 years is nostalgic and ideological. It destroy chinese net-service economy into hardware manufacturing that party leader understand.
4. Taiwan. If Europe didnt care about 20 million democratic nation getting invaded then all its idealism is false. Russia would not invade Western Europe too. Why should UK or France help Ukraine ??
This entire article is farce. You try to fight Trump, by becoming Trump. Self-interested cynical dog-eat-dog who dont believe in anything.
Oh God, here we go again. Stop caring about whatever Chomsky thinks. I hardly ever heard what the guy has to same about anything. I am not American. Chomsky never was a big guy over here.
Does it occur to you have us outside the US form our opinions based on entirely different histories and experiences from you Americans?
Yes of course China has had wars. We are talking about the big picture here. China in terms of expansionism is nothing compared to Russia and the US. Or even my own continent Europe. Look none of this implies liking China or what they stand for. It is a pragmatic observation of what we can realistically expect from China the next decade. We are in real tough spot right now and have to play real politics.
I don't know what kind of cloud 9 you are on, but in the real world we cannot always push every possible idealism. Also let us not be too cynical. China could change for the better. As countries develop they tend to become more democratic. Yes, I know they have slid back under Xi and become more authoritarian. That sucks, but sometimes development takes some steps back before moving forward.
As for competence. Yes, I am absolutely aware that Xi has done many stupid choices, but we are talking in relative terms here. What Xi is doing is just nothing compared to the insanity and bad decision making from Trump. And Xi for all his flaws is not erratic like Trump. There is predictability which is very important in international politics.
Of course Europe cares about Taiwan, and would send them aid. But here it is about being a pragmatist. We cannot solve every problem. That is on the US to solve. They have most actively guaranteed Taiwan freedom. They got military bases close by. If the US is going to cause us tons of problems, then F them. They can handle Taiwan themselves. If they backstab us on Ukraine, we need to focus extra resources on Ukraine. If the US is not going to help in Ukraine, then at minimum they should direct those resources towards protecting Taiwan.
Europe does not have the economic and military power of the US. You cannot expect us to keep Taiwan afloat, when we have massive problems in our own backyard with Russia.
Why should France and UK help Ukraine? It is a fellow European country. Taiwan is on the other side of the globe. Everyone is Europe are affected by Russia. Lots of European countries have borders with them. None of our alliances are worth shit if we did care about the countries on the borders to Russia.
This is not about not caring about Taiwan, but you cannot expect Europe to fix all problems in the world. Are we going to magically fix the US, Russia, China and everything all at the same time. We are not supermen. We have limit. Now others have to step up their game and help out.
Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are closer. SO is the US. There are many democracies which are much closer than Europe which could aid Taiwain more actively than Europe could.
This isn't about becoming Trump but surviving. Europe does not have the resources to fight a multi-front cold war with Russia, US and China. This is like in triage in a war. You cannot save everyone so you need to prioritize. If Europe collapses then the free world is no well off. I think it is vital that Europe in these troubled times remain as a working economic and military engine.
First priority now is to defeat Russia and bring peace to Ukraine. Other concerns are secondary.
You cant have it both ways.
Is Europe Middle Power Country who only have enough resource to help Ukraine vs Europe as Beacon of Free World ??
Because Europe who allied themselves with China is no different than USA who abandon Ukraine. Same argument hold here: Europe is near and has money.
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I dont want to defend Trump, but Trump is no worse than Orban or Erdogan, both Europe had trade and cooperation.
And Trump record is way, way better than Xi: zero tolerance of covid, uighur genocide, destruction of Chinese internet.
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Your argument put too much power on word "Europe".
Hungary or France not necessarily share same interest with Finland or Poland.
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"Chomsky brain loop", someone who took Anti-American Empire position to untenable direction.
You start from opposing Trump (Right decision) then brought it to allying with China (wrong direction).