My Peace Plan for Ukraine
A look at an unjust but realistic path to peace for Ukraine
Peace in Ukraine isn't difficult to achieve in principle: Russia pulls out, and the war ends. That would be a just peace. But reality is messier. The alternative to justice is capitulation—Trump’s so-called "peace," which is really just Ukraine's surrender.
Neither is realistic. So what does a realistic peace for Ukraine look like?
The Cold, Hard Limits of Peace Talks
First, NATO membership is off the table. Russia will never accept that. At the same time, Ukraine won’t accept security guarantees that leave it vulnerable, allowing Russia time to regroup for another invasion.
Russia is a menace to world order. In an ideal scenario, the West would have invaded, unseated Putin, and begun a full-scale democratization process like post-WWII Germany. But Russia’s nuclear arsenal makes that impossible. Justice is out of reach, and compromise is necessary.
A Hard Compromise: The Finland Model
Here’s my proposal:
Ukraine’s NATO membership bid is formally canceled.
Ukraine return all land taken from Russia.
Russia returns all occupied land except Crimea.
The West pledges a long-term military buildup in Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression, including arms production inside Ukraine.
This deal is unjust to Ukraine. It demands painful concessions. But history offers a precedent: Finland, after its brutal war with the Soviet Union, had to accept humiliating terms. NATO didn’t save them. Instead, Finland built a total defense strategy—an entire society structured to withstand future aggression.
Ukraine as a Fortress State
If justice is unattainable, deterrence is the next best option. The West must help Ukraine turn itself into an impenetrable fortress.
Massive bunker networks: Finland’s capital, Helsinki, can shelter its entire population underground. Ukraine should follow suit, ensuring its citizens are protected from missile attacks and bombardment.
Layered defenses: Trenches, minefields, barbed wire, and defensive fortifications along every border with Russia.
Air defense dominance: Cities covered with a dense network of anti-air systems.
Industrial war machine: Ukraine should be transformed into an arms-production hub, capable of matching Russian firepower. European NATO members should redirect weapons contracts from American firms to Ukrainian manufacturers.
ICBM deterrence: Conventional warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) should be developed and stationed in Ukraine, capable of striking deep into Russia.
Breaking Dependence on the U.S.
Trump’s antics have made one thing clear: Europe can no longer rely on the United States. Today, Elon Musk can whimsically threaten to cut Starlink service to Ukraine. Tomorrow, a U.S. president could do the same with military aid. The solution? A Ukrainian-controlled satellite network, independent weapons production, and deep integration with European defense strategies.
Israel provides a model. Love it or hate it, Israel’s military superiority over its neighbors is no accident. A total defense culture—where military service is universal and industry is structured around war-readiness—ensures Israel’s survival. Ukraine must do the same.
The Timing of Peace
Now is not the time to negotiate. Trump has emboldened Russia, making them more aggressive in their demands. That puts Ukraine in a weak position. The only path to a viable peace deal is for Europe to increase its support and help Ukraine win decisive victories on the battlefield.
Russia is running out of time. Its economy is straining. Its Soviet-era weapons stockpiles are nearly exhausted. If Ukraine can hammer Russia hard over the next six months, Russia will be forced to make concessions.
Trump’s presence in U.S. politics complicates matters. His vision of "peace" isn’t peace at all; it’s a resource grab. Any security guarantees he offers will be worthless. Europe must act independently.
The Realpolitik of Peace
We all want a just peace for Ukraine. But a just peace is impossible now.
The war could be won in the long run with continued Western support—but at a horrific cost in Ukrainian lives. The alternative is an imperfect peace, structured around deterrence.
Ukraine must become the fortress that Russia fears to challenge again. Europe must take full ownership of Ukraine’s defense, breaking free from U.S. unpredictability. NATO membership may be out of reach, but if Ukraine can make itself untouchable, that might just be enough to secure real peace.
Not fair. Not ideal. But possible.
This seams like a reasonable plan. And if Europe commits to it and takes the lead, perhaps the US would also 4 years from now (assuming we can kick Trump out, a very big assumption). I would add in the following carrot for Ukraine, EU membership. (Well what do I know about this possibility.)
If there ever was a time that Mercutio’s curse “A plague on both your houses!” was appropriate it’s now and applies equally to Trump and Zelensky. Zelensky surely knew last Friday that he was meeting with a narcissistic sociopath who lives for praise and yet instead of buttering up the old man he demanded a degree of commitment that no president could possibly give. We are not going to send our children and grandchildren to die in defense of the Donbas if Putin (the monster) reneges on any peace agreement which he may well do. Now Trump in response to Zelensky’s emotional outburst has overreacted and cut off critical support to Ukraine which is, in fact, fighting the monster. A totally inappropriate and dangerous action. A plague indeed.